Sub 5 Hour Century Challenge Time Goal - Fiddling With Numbers

Sub 5 Century Challenge

When reviewing the average speed for the group's ride on 3/18/12, I was surprised at how fast the pace was for this early in the season. For the most part, the front of the group was at a 22 mph or faster pace during most of the ride. This did not seem like a big deal on the way up to Lake Bluff, because we had the wind at our backs. However, that fact that we were able to maintain the 22 mph pace on the way back south while riding into the wind was a bit of a revelation. We were essentially riding at a sub 5 hour century pace in March, while still having six months of training time to get ready for the Sub 5 Hour Century Challenge. Obviously, it is easier to maintain a fast pace on a 60 mile ride than on a 100 mile ride. Also we had a lot of stopping time which allowed for recovery. particularly during the long stop at Panera Bread, but the group is far more fit this spring than we were a year ago.

Given that we have 25 weeks to prepare for riding 100 miles, basically all we have to is add 1.7 miles per week to our rides and we should be ready for a 100 miles at a sub 5 hour pace.

What would be a good time goal for our group this year? As long as the wind and heat are reasonably  moderate again this year, a feasible goal might be 4:43:30. I arrived at this time based upon:

Lap 1 - 33.5 miles @ 23 mph - Time = 1:28 - this was our first lap pace last year, so we should be able to match it again this year (as long as wind, heat, or rain are not big factors)

Rest Stop 0:06 - Other groups took less than 6 minutes, but between refilling water bottles, a biology break, and getting some solid food into our systems, this seems like a conservative estimate. Might be able to cut some time here

Lap 2  - 33.5 miles @ 22 mph - Time 1:31:30 - Lap 2 offers an opportunity to gain some time on last years pace. I think we were at a pace of about 21.6 mph last year, so this lap should allow us to pick up a few minutes versus last year.

Rest Stop 0:06

Lap 3  - 33 miles @ 21.5 mph - Time 1:32 - Our group still had a lot of energy at the beginning of Lap 3 last year, but we started wearing down around the middle of the lap. If we want to significantly beat last year's time, this is the lap where we probably have the most opportunity for improvement. Maintaining a pace of 21.5 miles per hour for the third lap will not be easy with weary legs, but does not seem like an unreasonable goal.

Total - 4:43:50

What do other members of the group think? Is a goal of 4:43:30 too aggressive or too easy?